Global Cocoa Market Summary

• Ivory Coast remains under significant stress, with 2025/26 production forecast to fall 10.8% to 1,650,000 metric tons as drought affects more than half the country. A 57% reduction in mid-crop farm gate prices threatens to suppress farmer investment and maintenance activity going forward. Cumulative shipments have edged up 0.7% year on year to 1,540,000 metric tons as of early May 2026, though the ongoing dry spell poses a direct threat to the mid-crop currently in progress.
• Ghana is confronting both climatic and structural challenges simultaneously. Drought conditions now cover approximately two thirds of the country, while the government's state buying company has ceased cocoa purchases due to insolvency, shrinking its market share from around 30% to less than 5%. Official farm gate prices have been cut by nearly 30% for 2025/26, compressing farmer margins at a time when growing conditions are already deteriorating. The combined effect is expected to produce a material decline in harvest volumes.
• Nigeria's near-term outlook is similarly constrained. February 2026 exports fell 4.6% year on year, and 2025/26 production is forecast to decline 11% to 385,000 metric tons. Reduced price incentives and rising input costs are the primary structural drivers, with global supply chain disruptions linked to the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz adding further pressure.
• At the global level, the supply picture is complicated by the anticipated intensification of El Nino through 2026, which carries additional downside risk for West African yields. Grinding data points to demand contraction in North America and Europe, though Asian processing activity has shown resilience.