Global Canola Market Weekly Summary

• Canola futures are exhibiting bearish technical signals, with May contracts falling below the 200-period simple moving average at CAD 712.10 per ton. Despite this, processor demand has remained supported by robust crush margins of CAD 3.50 per ton over futures prices, reflecting favorable processing economics. Saskatchewan recorded a strong 2025 harvest of 12,200,000 tons, a 16.7% year-on-year increase and a new record. However, canola exports through February declined 29% compared to the prior year, and concerns are emerging around reduced fertilizer applications by producers, which could weigh on future yields. Price levels remain highly sensitive to geopolitical developments, particularly in the Middle East, given their influence on crude oil and input costs.
• China's role in the global canola market remains pivotal, with domestic canola oil consumption at approximately 9,900,000 tons and import dependency of around 2,200,000 tons. The reduction of Chinese tariffs on Canadian canola, effective March 2026, has improved market sentiment and lifted export forecasts. However, no confirmed increase in physical buying has been observed following the tariff change, leaving the market cautious about whether improved policy conditions will translate into meaningful near-term trade flows.
• Australia's canola production outlook for 2025/26 is encouraging, with potential output of 7,700,000 tons positioning the season as the second largest crop on record. Trial shipments of Australian canola to China have cleared customs, raising the prospect of a normalization in export flows that were disrupted from 2020. Weather conditions present a risk to the 2026/27 crop: Western Australia and New South Wales are experiencing notable soil moisture deficits, while South Australia has benefited from above-average rainfall, creating uneven conditions across growing regions.
• EU rapeseed import rates fell 39% year on year, reflecting a significant contraction in demand from one of the world's key importing regions. The decline is partly attributable to Ukraine's reduced export availability following newly imposed export duties and lower production forecasts. This demand weakness is weighing on broader canola and rapeseed market sentiment, limiting the prospect of a demand-driven price recovery in the near term.