Recorded 04/03/2026, Aired 04/07/2026

Hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins go full coroner in this month’s episode of the Southwest Climate Podcast and do an autopsy of the record-setting March heat wave. Expect fluid dynamics, conservation of angular momentum, and level of divergence type of nerding for this deep dive. They go over the heat impacts to snowpack and forecasted streamflow, and the end of month precipitation event which looked monsoonal. Lastly there is some excitement for the upcoming super El Niño that’s brewing. Stick around on this long-ish one for a full explainer on the Pacific Decadal Oscillation - at the 1:02:43 mark.

Mentions:

Climate Perspectives - Western Region

Paper: “Synthesis of Publications on the Anomalous June 2021 Heat Wave in the Pacific Northwest of the United States and Canada”

USDA - NRCS: Snowpack & Streamflow

RainLog

NOAA - CPC: El Niño Southern Oscillation

NOAA - NCEI: Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)

Recorded 03/03/2026, Aired 03/04/2026

In this month’s episode of the Southwest Climate Podcast, Hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins rank their favorite months of the year - and June gets no love. They recap February’s weather which was high and dry but not much else. There’s a discussion on ENSO with a deep dive into a couple related papers of note. And with the end of meteorological winter they cover the bleak snowpack conditions in the west. Towards the end there is a look into the models to see what is on the horizon - including for the monsoon. Stick around for an announcement on the 2026 Southwest Monsoon Fantasy Forecasts game with a lot of new exciting features - you won’t want to miss!

Mentions:

NOAA - Climate Prediction Center: ENSO Discussion

Paper: “Southern Hemisphere Surface Warming Drives Southwestern U.S. Precipitation according to AI-Informed Climate Model Simulations”

Paper: “Anthropogenic Intensification of Cool-Season Precipitation Is Not Yet Detectable Across the Western United States”

USDA - Natural Resources Conservation Service: NWCC Interactive Map

NOAA - Climate Prediction Center: Season Forecasts

National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME)

International Multi-Model Ensemble

Hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins are kicking off 2026 with a look at this winter’s weird weather in this month’s Southwest Climate Podcast. They do a recap of the last couple of months of precip and temps. They do a review of large scale climate patterns - Madden–Julian Oscillation, Greenland Block - and get into a deep discussion about the Polar Vortex. They cover the not-so-great coverage of snowpack and look at the forecasts through peak season going forward. Rounding out the episode is the NOAA announcement on RONI (a topic of past episodes) and a preview of the AI focused episode that is in the works.

Mentions:

Paper: Arctic sea ice decline and continental cold anomalies: Upstream and downstream effects of Greenland blocking

Paper: What Is the Polar Vortex and How Does It Influence Weather?

• Figure 2

• Figure 1

Article: Stratospheric Warming Confirmed: Polar Vortex Collapse to Bring Major Weather Disruption in the Coming Weeks

Article: February forecast calls for more polar vortex mayhem

Article: Snow Drought in the West Reaches Record Levels

NOAA NWS - Climate Prediction Center: Forecasts

NOAA NWS - Public Information Statement: Implementing a Relative Oceanic Niño Index effective February 1, 2026

NOAA NWS - Information Circular: Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI)

Paper: Northern Hemisphere Wintertime Teleconnections from the 2023–24 El Niño Offset by Background SST Trends

In this month’s Southwest Climate Podcast episode, hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins are feeling good about the warmer than normal December temps. They start out with a look at recent conditions, including the persistent ridge keeping us dry this month. This leads to a review of a paper on the Heat Dome of 2023 - and what all this warmth means for snowpack in the west. They give their End of Year review of heat, fire and precipitation in 2025. Rounding out the episode is a telling of each of their picks for the Climate Story of the Year for the Southwest.

Mentions:

Climate Anomaly Maps and Tables Paper: “The longest-lasting 2023 western North American heat wave was fueled by the record-warm Atlantic Ocean” USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service - Snowpack Map Southwest U.S. Station Climate Summaries SWCC: Southwest Year-To-Date Wildland Fire Activity Webinar: Globe/Miami Flooding Event of September 2025: Weather and Climate Overview NOAA NWS: Climate Prediction Center - Outlooks NOAA NWS: North American Multi-Model Ensemble International Multi-Model Ensemble

Recorded 11/07/2025, Aired 11/10/2025

Hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins are enjoying the recent fall weather in this month’s Southwest Climate Podcast episode. The hosts recap October which had some pretty interesting storm activity. There is a summary of the hurricane season - including the category 5 Melissa that had devastating impacts in the Caribbean. They cover the fall to winter transition patterns. Then the podcast ends with a discussion on the weak developing La Niña which may or may not relieve the drought pressure with some winter precipitation.

Mentions:

NOAA - Climate Prediction Center: Forecasts

Southwest U.S. Station Climate Summaries

Video - Hurricane Hunters pass through the eye of Melissa

NOAA - National Hurricane Center

NOAA - Climate Prediction Center: ENSO

National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME): JFM Precipitation

***If you receive an error message on any of the NOAA websites, try using an incognito browser window

Recorded 10/03/2025, Aired 10/06/2025

In this month’s Southwest Climate Podcast hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins kick it off by saying goodbye to the monsoon. They do a recap of the season with a focus on last month's rain events. September was interesting to say the least - this leads to a philosophical discussion on whether it is the same flavor as the rest of the monsoon. The hosts tie up the episode with what’s on the horizon for this coming winter & the ENSO forecast.

Mentions:

Southwest U.S. Summer Monsoon Season Precipitation Mapping

Southwest U.S. Station Climate Summaries

Monsoon Precipitation Totals with Rankings 2025

NOAA NWS - Climate Prediction Center

NOAA NWS - Climate Prediction Center: ENSO

North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME)

Recorded 8/29/2025, Aired 9/2/2025

We are over two-thirds of the way through this year’s monsoon and in this month’s Southwest Climate Podcast hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins have a bit of a therapy session. They do a round up of July and August which they call the most uninteresting monsoon. There is a deep dive on what is driving this picture of night and day between Arizona and New Mexico. They give a look towards September with all eyes on the eastern Pacific tropical activity as the wildcard. They eventually learn to appreciate the subtleties and accept their relationship with the Southwest Monsoon.

Mentions:

Monsoon Season Station Climate Summaries

Paper: Dominant patterns of US warm season precipitation variability in a fine resolution observational record, with focus on the southwest

North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME)

University of Arizona's Weather Research and Forecasting Model (UA WRF)

SW US Monsoon Precipitation Mapping - Past Seasons

NOAA - NWS: Climate Prediction Center

Recorded 07/23/2025, Aired 07/24/2025

Hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins in this month’s Southwest Climate Podcast focus on the current unusual monsoon for the entire episode. All the ingredients are there - but it is not your typical season. They cover the southwesterly flow, what the heck is going on with the four corners high, and the low that’s been sitting off the coast of California. They dive into a recent rain event that was attributed to a Mesoscale Convective Vortex (MCV) and how the monsoon has done so far across Arizona and New Mexico which is a tale of 2 states. Lastly, hear how the hosts are doing on their predictions for the Southwest Monsoon Fantasy Forecasts game.

You can still play if you haven’t signed up yet. August Predictions for the Southwest Monsoon Fantasy Forecast game are due next Thursday 7/31 before midnight - See if you can beat Mike this next month!

Mentions:

NWS - Tucson: Dewpoint Tracker

Southwest U.S. Summer Monsoon Season Precipitation Mapping

NWS - Climate Prediction Center: Outlooks

North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME): August Precipitation

TropicalTidbits: GFS Model