Citizens Financial profit jumps on higher fee income, shares hit all-time high

Citizens Financial Group ($CFG) posted a sharp Q4 profit jump, powered by a rebound in fee income (wealth + capital markets) and stronger net interest income as net interest margin widened. The stock hit an all-time high after the print.

What happened

* Q4 profit up about 32% year over year

* Net interest income up about 9%, helped by a ~20 bps improvement in net interest margin

* Non-interest income up about 8%, with wealth fees up about 31% and capital markets fees up about 16%

Why this matters

This is a “quality of earnings” read-through for banks: investors typically pay up when a regional bank shows it can grow profits from multiple engines (NII + fee businesses), not just riding the rate cycle. It also signals healthier capital markets activity (underwriting and loan syndication) feeding into bank fee lines.

Secondary policy overhang to watch

Reuters also notes renewed political pressure around a 10% credit card rate cap idea, which big-bank CEOs have pushed back on. If that gains momentum, it’s a headline risk for card-heavy lenders.

Winners

1. Diversified regional banks

If the Street is rewarding banks that can expand NIM while also growing wealth/capital-markets fees, the “diversified regionals” basket can re-rate on earnings quality.

Names: $CFG (Citizens Financial Group), $USB (U.S. Bancorp), $TFC (Truist Financial)

2. Capital markets fee beneficiaries (underwriting, syndication, deal pipeline)

A pickup in underwriting and related activity tends to lift fee pools across investment banking platforms (ECM/DCM, syndications, advisory).

Names: $GS (Goldman Sachs), $MS (Morgan Stanley), $JPM (JPMorgan Chase & Co.)

3. Wealth management platforms (fee-led tailwinds)

When banks highlight strong wealth fee growth, it reinforces the broader theme that recurring advisory/asset-based fees can stabilize earnings versus pure spread businesses.

Names: $SCHW (Charles Schwab), $AMP (Ameriprise Financial)

Losers

1. Credit card-heavy lenders (rate-cap headline risk)

Any credible movement toward a hard APR cap would compress yields, tighten underwriting, and potentially reduce credit availability—markets usually de-risk the names most exposed.

Names: $COF (Capital One Financial), $DFS (Discover Financial Services), $SYF (Synchrony Financial), $AXP (American Express)

2. Higher-APR consumer lenders and some fintech lenders (pricing power risk)

If political/regulatory scrutiny rises around consumer APRs, lenders that depend on higher rates to offset credit losses can face margin and volume pressure.

Names: $UPST (Upstart Holdings), $LC (LendingClub), $SOFI (SoFi Technologies)

3. Spread-dependent banks with limited fee offset (rate-cycle sensitivity)

If Fed cuts continue and deposit betas shift, NIM can compress for banks that don’t have enough fee growth to cushion NII volatility.

Names: $ZION (Zions Bancorporation), $FHN (First Horizon)

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Kraft Heinz hits a 6-year low as Berkshire signals it may sell its 27.5% stake

What happened

Kraft Heinz ($KHC) disclosed in an SEC prospectus filing that Berkshire Hathaway could sell, from time to time, up to 325.4 million shares — essentially its full 27.5% stake (about $7.7bn based on the prior close). The headline spooked the market because a stake that large creates a supply overhang. $KHC fell about 7% intraday and touched a near 6-year low.

Context that matters

1. Overhang risk

Even if Berkshire does not sell immediately, registering the shares puts “availability” on the table, which can pressure the stock until the market has clarity on timing and pace.

2. Big strategic reset already underway

Kraft Heinz is planning to split into 2 businesses (groceries vs sauces and spreads), targeting completion in the second half of 2026. A potential Berkshire exit adds uncertainty during a major transition.

3. Why investors read this as a signal

Berkshire helped create Kraft Heinz in 2015 and has taken large write-downs on the investment. A sale would look like a high-profile “capitulation” and can change sentiment across the packaged-food space.

Winners

Rotation beneficiaries in packaged food and snacks

If investors sell $KHC but still want consumer staples exposure, money often rotates into peers with cleaner narratives, steadier execution, or better innovation.

Names: $MDLZ (Mondelez International), $GIS (General Mills), $HSY (The Hershey Company)

Value and private-label friendly retailers

Reuters notes $KHC has faced rising competition and consumer pushback. If shoppers keep trading down, retailers with strong private label and scale can benefit.

Names: $WMT (Walmart), $COST (Costco Wholesale), $KR (Kroger)

Deal and restructuring advisory ecosystem

A planned corporate split plus any secondary sale logistics can drive advisory, underwriting, and trading revenue (even if timing is gradual).

Names: $GS (Goldman Sachs), $MS (Morgan Stanley), $JPM (JPMorgan Chase)

Losers

Kraft Heinz and Berkshire stake-overhang angle

The market worries about a large block of potential supply and headline-driven selling pressure during a strategic split.

Names: $KHC (The Kraft Heinz Company), $BRK.B (Berkshire Hathaway)

Legacy packaged-food names with similar “re-rate risk”

A Berkshire exit headline can make investors re-check the whole aisle for brands seen as slower-growth, highly promoted, or less innovative.

Names: $CPB (Campbell Soup Company), $K (Kellanova), $SJM (The J.M. Smucker Company)

Processed-protein and shelf-stable brands exposed to weak category sentiment

If the market narrative becomes “center-of-store pressure plus tougher competition,” adjacent branded food names can catch sympathy selling.

Names: $HRL (Hormel Foods), $TSN (Tyson Foods)

What to watch next

* Any updates on the pace, structure, or counterparties of Berkshire’s potential sales (gradual selling vs block trades).

* Details and milestones on the planned 2-way split (timeline, which brands go where, and margin targets).

* Management credibility under the incoming CEO and whether strategy shifts from cost-cutting to growth and innovation.

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Pfizer licenses Novavax Matrix-M adjuvant for up to 2 vaccine programs

Novavax signed a non-exclusive licensing deal giving Pfizer access to Novavax’s Matrix-M adjuvant for use in vaccines targeting up to 2 infectious disease areas.

Novavax gets a $30M upfront payment in Q1 2026, is eligible for up to $500M in development and sales milestones, and tiered high mid-single-digit royalties on net sales of any Pfizer products that use Matrix-M. Pfizer controls development, manufacturing, and commercialisation, while Novavax supplies Matrix-M.

Why the market cares

1. This is a “platform monetisation” signal: Novavax is getting paid for the ingredient (adjuvant), not just a single vaccine product. That can create higher-quality, longer-duration cash flows (upfront + milestones + royalties).

2. It’s also a sentiment tailwind for vaccine enablement tech: big pharma is still shopping for ways to boost immune response and improve product performance.

3. The deal lands as vaccine adjuvants are under a brighter political spotlight, especially aluminium-based adjuvants, which can shift narrative risk around vaccine development choices.

Winners

Deal beneficiaries

$NVAX picks up near-term cash (upfront) and “optionality” via milestones and royalties; $PFE gets another tool to potentially improve efficacy and durability across future vaccine programs without buying the whole company.

Names: $NVAX (Novavax), $PFE (Pfizer)

Vaccine adjuvant and immune-boosting IP read-through

A big-pharma license for an adjuvant can re-rate the value of “vaccine ingredient IP” generally, because it validates that the adjuvant layer can be monetised through BD deals and royalties (not just end-product sales).

Names: $DVAX (Dynavax Technologies), $GSK (GSK)

Vaccine development and manufacturing picks-and-shovels

More vaccine programs moving through development typically means more demand for bioprocessing, analytics, QC, and manufacturing workflows over time, even if the exact disease targets aren’t disclosed yet.

Names: $TMO (Thermo Fisher Scientific), $DHR (Danaher)

Losers

Competing vaccine platforms fighting for big-pharma slots

If big pharma expands partnerships around non-mRNA approaches (or chooses adjuvanted strategies for certain targets), investor attention and future deal flow can rotate away from other platforms on the margin. This is a “relative underperformance” setup, not a fundamental collapse call.

Names: $MRNA (Moderna), $BNTX (BioNTech)

Smaller vaccine biotechs without a clear royalty-style monetisation path

When the tape rewards “platform licensing + royalties,” smaller names that still rely on binary clinical catalysts can struggle to keep up in risk-off moments or when funding gets more selective.

Names: $INO (Inovio Pharmaceuticals), $VIR (Vir Biotechnology)

Aluminium-adjuvant headline risk basket

With adjuvants (especially aluminium-based ones) getting more public scrutiny, large vaccine portfolios can see periodic headline-driven volatility even if long-term fundamentals don’t change overnight. This is about narrative risk, not an accusation of safety issues.

Names: $MRK (Merck & Co), $JNJ (Johnson & Johnson)

What to watch next

1. Any disclosure of the 2 disease areas Pfizer targets (that will determine who truly competes).

2. Timing of the $30M upfront (Q1 2026) and any milestone framework details that surface later.

3. Follow-on licensing interest: Novavax management said interest in Matrix-M has increased, which raises the odds of more BD headlines.

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