How is the war over the Strait of Hormuz reaching Africa? Ghanaian security and geopolitical analyst Fidel Amakye Owusu returns to explain how the Iran war is driving fuel protests, food insecurity, and the risk of state collapse across the continent.

We discuss why removed fuel subsidies make this shock hit Africans twice as hard, how Gen Z protests brought down Madagascar’s government, and why military juntas no longer bother pretending to be democracies in a multipolar world. We also cover Egypt weighing troops for Saudi Arabia, Tim Kennedy’s ambush in the DRC and the scramble for critical minerals, the Houthi–al-Shabaab connection across the Bab el-Mandeb, the succession question in Saudi Arabia, and which African states are closest to collapse.

Fidel’s warning: when people can’t afford food, they protest. When there’s no food to buy, they take up arms.

Fidel Amakye Owusu is a geopolitical and security advisor and CEO of DefSEC Analytics Africa, focused on terrorism, insurgency, and governance across Africa.

Africa Intelligence Report (waitlist): https://the-africa-intelligence-report.ghost.io/join-the-waitlist/Fidel on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/fidel-amakye-owusu-8158b6149/

Chapters
00:00 Intro
00:44 How the Iran war hits Africa: fuel prices and lost subsidies
04:28 Elections, coups, and the threat to young democracies
06:26 Gen Z protests and Madagascar’s new junta
07:34 Parallels to the Arab Spring
09:22 Why juntas no longer fake democracy
12:24 Africa as the testing ground for a multipolar world
14:29 Why African states look abroad instead of to each other
17:35 Resource nationalism, Erik Prince, and Tim Kennedy in the DRC
20:29 When non-state actors rival the state
25:59 The Houthis and al-Shabaab: pragmatic extremists
29:28 Egypt, Sisi, and troops for Saudi Arabia
31:02 Will Sisi actually leave power in 2030?
35:35 MBS, Saudi succession, and the UAE rivalry
41:33 Fertilizer, the Red Sea, and famine risk in the Horn of Africa
45:28 Is hunger more dangerous than fuel prices?
47:02 Which African states are closest to collapse?
49:38 Where to find Fidel’s work

Houthi missiles are hitting Riyadh’s main airport, and it’s turning into Saudi Arabia’s worst-case scenario. One strike killed at least 12 people and injured around 300. Flights are cancelled, and the oil executives Saudi Arabia was trying to host have pulled out.

This week I trace how we got here, starting with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman: his rise to power, the 2017 Ritz-Carlton purge, and his 2015 decision to go to war in Yemen with a military built to protect the monarchy, not to fight. A decade of escalation pushed Iran to arm the Houthis with better and better asymmetric weapons, and that same adaptation is now being used against U.S. forces.

Then the bigger question: if the House of Saud can’t keep the kingdom safe, what happens to the deal that has kept it stable? I walk through what’s at stake, from global oil and food supplies to who controls Mecca and Medina.

For more on the strategic side of the Iran conflict, go back and listen to the Escalation Trap series with Robert Pape.

Want to go one step further? Members of The Briefing Room on YouTube get this week’s companion video, which looks at what most likely comes next if something happens to MBS. https://youtu.be/6E_cTl9em2A

Ten ships hit in the Strait of Hormuz in a single week, the most of the entire war. Houthi missiles shut down Riyadh's airport in the largest set of attacks in Saudi Arabia's modern history. Now France has confirmed it is sending radar and air defense assets to protect Saudi Aramco infrastructure at Yanbu, less than a couple hours' drive from Medina.Professor Robert Pape returns to explain how France's move could carry the war into Europe, and why the escalation trap is now compounded by a dangerous new dynamic: preemption.We cover:- Why foreign troop deployments are the strongest risk factor for suicide terrorism, from 9/11 to Mali- Why the Houthis have never been defeated, and how the fighting could open the door to AQAP- Radar orientation and why Saudi Patriots may have been blind to Houthi missiles- What the leaked three-day air plan has in common with Desert Storm's Instant Thunder- How four actors with incentives to strike first create a spiral that looks a lot like July 1914- MANPADS, drones, and the growing risk to commercial airlinersWant the full Q&A with Professor Pape? Join The Briefing Room on YouTube. Members get the complete Q&A the same day as the interview, plus members-only content every week.00:00 This week's escalation00:39 Professor Pape returns01:28 Ten ships hit in Hormuz, Riyadh airport struck02:28 France moves to defend Aramco at Yanbu05:00 Why this isn't a world war (yet)07:33 Foreign troops and suicide terrorism: Mali and 9/1114:23 MBS and the Saudi-Houthi war15:38 Yanbu, Medina, and the sectarian map18:45 Can French air defense even help?23:13 Everyone's in the escalation trap now24:30 The three-day air plan and Instant Thunder34:08 Preemptive spirals: a four-player game35:46 The illusion of control and the road to World War I38:15 How this becomes a true world war40:09 MANPADS, drones, and airliners42:45 Q&A preview