How is the war over the Strait of Hormuz reaching Africa? Ghanaian security and geopolitical analyst Fidel Amakye Owusu returns to explain how the Iran war is driving fuel protests, food insecurity, and the risk of state collapse across the continent.

We discuss why removed fuel subsidies make this shock hit Africans twice as hard, how Gen Z protests brought down Madagascar’s government, and why military juntas no longer bother pretending to be democracies in a multipolar world. We also cover Egypt weighing troops for Saudi Arabia, Tim Kennedy’s ambush in the DRC and the scramble for critical minerals, the Houthi–al-Shabaab connection across the Bab el-Mandeb, the succession question in Saudi Arabia, and which African states are closest to collapse.

Fidel’s warning: when people can’t afford food, they protest. When there’s no food to buy, they take up arms.

Fidel Amakye Owusu is a geopolitical and security advisor and CEO of DefSEC Analytics Africa, focused on terrorism, insurgency, and governance across Africa.

Africa Intelligence Report (waitlist): https://the-africa-intelligence-report.ghost.io/join-the-waitlist/Fidel on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/fidel-amakye-owusu-8158b6149/

Chapters
00:00 Intro
00:44 How the Iran war hits Africa: fuel prices and lost subsidies
04:28 Elections, coups, and the threat to young democracies
06:26 Gen Z protests and Madagascar’s new junta
07:34 Parallels to the Arab Spring
09:22 Why juntas no longer fake democracy
12:24 Africa as the testing ground for a multipolar world
14:29 Why African states look abroad instead of to each other
17:35 Resource nationalism, Erik Prince, and Tim Kennedy in the DRC
20:29 When non-state actors rival the state
25:59 The Houthis and al-Shabaab: pragmatic extremists
29:28 Egypt, Sisi, and troops for Saudi Arabia
31:02 Will Sisi actually leave power in 2030?
35:35 MBS, Saudi succession, and the UAE rivalry
41:33 Fertilizer, the Red Sea, and famine risk in the Horn of Africa
45:28 Is hunger more dangerous than fuel prices?
47:02 Which African states are closest to collapse?
49:38 Where to find Fidel’s work