Couverture de Restaurant Resilience in Turbulent Times: Navigating the Changing Landscape of the US On-Trade Market

Restaurant Resilience in Turbulent Times: Navigating the Changing Landscape of the US On-Trade Market

Restaurant Resilience in Turbulent Times: Navigating the Changing Landscape of the US On-Trade Market

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 In the past 48 hours, the restaurant and bar industry shows resilience amid softening visits and rising costs. US on-trade sales surged 16 percent year-over-year to 94,844 dollars in the week ending January 10, driven by higher spend per visit despite fewer transactions, per CGA by NIQ data[1]. Half of consumers have cut restaurant spending, with 45 percent visiting chains less often, pushing operators toward tech for efficiency[2].

Beverage innovation dominates, with chains like Chick-fil-A adding floats and frosted sodas, Dunkin launching protein milk and cold caffeinated drinks, and Taco Bell eyeing 5 billion dollars in annual sales[3]. Energy drinks and premium mocktails are booming, outpacing coffee; Dutch Bros posted 5.7 percent same-store sales growth in Q3 2025, versus Sweetgreen's 9.5 percent decline[3]. Full-service spots lag QSRs but are waking up to non-alcoholic options[3].

Deals include Grubhub's parent acquiring rewards app Claim to boost customer retention[4]. Red Robin launched a value menu starting at 9.99 dollars with bottomless sides[11]. New openings like Lola's Taco Bar in Grosse Pointe Woods signal local momentum[5].

Supply chains remain disrupted by geopolitical risks, prompting multi-unit operators to prioritize reliable suppliers over low prices and simplify menus for margin protection[6][10]. Leaders respond with AI demand forecasting, dynamic pricing, and first-party ordering to manage off-premise demand[2].

Compared to late 2025, value growth persists but visits weaken further, with more closures looming for 13 chains due to inflation[8][13]. Consumer shifts favor experiential, affordable beverages over full meals, helping beverage-focused brands like Dutch Bros outperform[3]. Operators are adapting via tech and precision, not cuts, to navigate 2026 pressures. (298 words)

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