Résultats de "Nassim Nicholas Taleb" dans Toutes les catégories

A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives. Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications, The Black Swan will change the way you look at the world.

Sommes-nous vraiment capables de distinguer le génie visionnaire de l'imbécile chanceux ? Pourquoi nous obstinons-nous à vouloir trouver des messages sensés dans des évènements dus au seul hasard ? Et n'aurions-nous pas une fâcheuse tendance à ordonner le réel selon une routine mentale biaisée, plutôt que de le voir tel qu'il est, avec toute son incertitude ?

This audiobook is about luck, or more precisely, how we perceive and deal with luck in life and business. It is already a landmark work, and its title has entered our vocabulary. In its second edition, Fooled by Randomness is now a cornerstone for anyone interested in random outcomes.

Êtes-vous prêt à mettre votre peau en jeu ? Pourquoi devrait-on cesser d'écouter ceux qui parlent au lieu d'agir ? Pourquoi les entreprises font-elles faillite ? Comment se fait-il que nous avons plus d'esclaves aujourd'hui qu'au temps des Romains ? Pourquoi imposer la démocratie aux autres pays ne marche jamais ? Réponse : trop nombreux sont ceux qui dirigent le monde sans mettre leur peau en jeu.

In The Black Swan Taleb outlined a problem, and in Antifragile he offers a definitive solution: how to gain from disorder and chaos while being protected from fragilities and adverse events. For what Taleb calls the "antifragile" is actually beyond the robust, because it benefits from shocks, uncertainty, and stressors, just as human bones get stronger when subjected to stress and tension. The antifragile needs disorder in order to survive and flourish. Taleb stands uncertainty on its head, making it desirable, even necessary, and proposes that things be built in an antifragile manner.

In his most provocative and practical book yet, one of the foremost thinkers of our time redefines what it means to understand the world, succeed in a profession, contribute to a fair and just society, detect nonsense, and influence others. Citing examples ranging from Hammurabi to Seneca, Antaeus the Giant to Donald Trump, Nassim Nicholas Taleb shows how the willingness to accept one's own risks is an essential attribute of heroes, saints, and flourishing people in all walks of life.

Christianity is the most enduring and influential legacy of the ancient world, and its emergence the single most transformative development in Western history. Even the increasing number in the West today who have abandoned the faith of their forebears, and dismiss all religion as pointless superstition, remain recognisably its heirs. Seen close up, the division between a sceptic and a believer may seem unbridgeable. Widen the focus, though, and Christianity's enduring impact upon the West can be seen in the emergence of much that has traditionally been cast as its nemesis.

Le hasard nous rend meilleurs. Avec ce provocant paradoxe, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, l'auteur du best-seller "Le Cygne Noir", nous offre un enseignement d'une portée révolutionnaire : comment non seulement surmonter les cataclysmes de notre temps - ces Cygnes Noirs qui fondent sur un homme, une culture, une civilisation, les bouleversent et les réduisent à néant -, mais en faire une source de bienfaits.

Quel est le point commun entre l'invention de la roue, Pompéi, le krach boursier de 1987, Harry Potter et Internet ? Pourquoi ne devrait-on jamais lire un journal ni courir pour attraper un train ? Que peuvent nous apprendre les amants de Catherine de Russie sur les probabilités ? Pourquoi les prévisionnistes sont-ils pratiquement tous des arnaqueurs ? Ce livre audio révèle tout des Cygnes Noirs, ces événements aléatoires, hautement improbables, qui jalonnent notre vie.

By the author of the modern classic The Black Swan, this collection of aphorisms and meditations expresses his major ideas in ways you least expect. The Bed of Procrustes takes its title from Greek mythology: the story of a man who made his visitors fit his bed to perfection by either stretching them or cutting their limbs. It represents Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s view of modern civilization’s hubristic side effects.

Cosa pensarono gli europei quando, giunti in Australia, videro dei cigni neri dopo aver creduto per secoli, supportati dall'evidenza, che tutti i cigni fossero bianchi? Un singolo evento è sufficiente a invalidare un convincimento frutto di un'esperienza millenaria. Ci ripetono che il futuro è prevedibile e i rischi controllabili, ma la storia non striscia, salta. I cigni neri sono eventi rari, di grandissimo impatto e prevedibili solo a posteriori, come l'invenzione della ruota, l'11 settembre, il crollo di Wall Street e il successo di Google.

¿Qué es un cisne negro? Para empezar, es un suceso improbable, sus consecuencias son importantes y todas las explicaciones que se puedan ofrecer a posteriori no tienen en cuenta el azar y sólo buscan encajar lo imprevisible en un modelo perfecto. El éxito de Google y YouTube, y hasta el 11-S, son “cisnes negros”. Para Nassim Nicholas Taleb, los cisnes negros son parte integrante de nuestro mundo, desde el auge de las religiones hasta los acontecimientos de nuestra vida personal. ¿Por qué no podemos identificar este fenómeno hasta que ya ha sucedido?

Um Cisne Negro é um evento que reúne três características principais: é altamente improvável, produz um enorme impacto e, depois que acontece, inventamos uma explicação que o faça parecer menos aleatório e mais previsível do que de fato é. Para Nassim Nicholas Taleb, esse fenômeno está na base de quase tudo que acontece no mundo — da ascensão das religiões aos acontecimentos em nossas próprias vidas. O incrível êxito do Google, por exemplo, foi um Cisne Negro, assim como o Onze de Setembro.

The incredible true story of the card-counting mathematics professor who taught the world how to beat the dealer and, as the first of the great quantitative investors, ushered in a revolution on Wall Street.

I Cigni neri si sono moltiplicati e hanno oscurato il cielo. L'uccello simbolo dell' "evento imprevedibile di grande impatto" teorizzato da Nassim Nicholas Taleb negli anni è stato usato per legittimare i buchi di bilancio lasciati da banchieri premiati con buonuscite milionarie, giustificare i mercati di schiavi nati dalle ceneri degli interventi militari occidentali o autoassolversi di fronte a votazioni dagli esiti clamorosi come il referendum sulla Brexit. Ma davvero tutto questo era - è - inevitabile?

Questo audiolibro offre una nuova visione del mondo. La prospettiva che cambierà le nostre idee sulla società e ispirerà le nostre scelte quotidiane. Ci aiuterà a comprendere come il nostro corpo si protegge dalle malattie e le specie viventi si evolvono, come la libertà d'impresa crea prosperità e il genio si trasforma in innovazione.

Em A lógica do Cisne Negro, Taleb demonstrou que acontecimentos altamente improváveis e imprevisíveis dominam a nossa existência. Em Antifrágil, o autor confere um novo conceito à incerteza, tornando-a desejável e até mesmo necessária. Assim como ficamos fisicamente mais fortes quando submetidos à tensão, muitas coisas se beneficiam do estresse, da desordem e da volatilidade. O que Taleb identificou e chama de antifrágil não só tira proveito do caos, como precisa dele para sobreviver e florescer. O antifrágil está além do resiliente e do robusto.

Instead of trying to predict "Black Swan" events such as coups or crises, forecasters should look at how political systems handle disorder. The best indicator of a country's future trajectory is not a lengthy past stability, but recent moderate volatility.

Fooled by Randomness is the word-of-mouth sensation that will change the way you think about business and the world. Nassim Nicholas Taleb - veteran trader, renowned risk expert, polymathic scholar, erudite raconteur has penned a modern classic that turns on its head what we believe about luck and skill. Set against the backdrop of the most conspicuous forum in which luck is mistaken for skill - the world of trading - Fooled by Randomness provides captivating insight into one of the least understood factors in all our lives.

Der Weltbestseller, der uns die Augen öffnet und unseren Verstand herausfordert. Schwarze Schwäne stehen symbolisch für das, womit wir nicht rechnen. Bis ins 17. Jahrhundert waren die Menschen in der Alten Welt überzeugt, alle Schwäne seien weiß. Dann wurde Australien entdeckt. Dort gibt es schwarze Schwäne - was keiner für möglich gehalten hatte, war auf einmal Realität. Wenn uns im Alltag ungeahnte Überraschungen begegnen, ist das vielleicht noch nicht so schlimm. Suchen sie jedoch gesamte Volkswirtschaften heim, kann das System kollabieren.