Felipe Elink-Schuurman, Jay Maroo, Abhishek Kumar and Jorge Molinero unpack Iran's shift from blocking Hormuz to policing it, mounting strikes on Saudi and Russian energy infrastructure, a bearish TD3C freight call, Russian diesel exports returning, and tight Naphtha and LPG markets heading into winter.

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(00:04:47) Escalation Risk Into Midterms: US troop buildup, Houthi strikes on Riyadh and Aramco, and Trump-Netanyahu strike talk ahead of elections.

(00:13:04) Russia's Diesel Bandaid: Putin-Trump OFAC deal adds export barrels, but refinery damage still caps Russia's real capacity.

(00:18:47) Freight Tops Out: Jay turns bearish on TD3C as weak refining margins cut appetite for expensive crude freight.

(00:29:40) Diesel Floods Back: EU SPR releases and recovering Russian exports could flip diesel from tight to oversupplied by December.

(00:43:18) Naphtha Tight, LPG Strong: Jorge flags scarce naphtha, firm East-West arbs, and tightening butane as winter demand builds.

Jorge Molinero hosts June Goh and Michael Ryan as Iran’s tanker attacks escalate ahead of US elections. They cover Basra discounts, Aramco term talks, China’s product export quotas, and whether the TD3C sell-off is overdone.

Chapters:

(01:52) Hormuz, sanctions and US politics: Iran’s attacks are rising and changing shape, and Washington may hold off until November 3.

(11:23) Crude: Aramco term talks and Gulf discounts: Stalled term talks and steep spot discounts show the Gulf barrel is moving at a cost.

(16:25) Refining margins and China export quotas: Asian margins flipped positive on weaker Gulf diffs and freight, with China quotas supporting light products.

(24:15) Freight: TD7 and TC14 turn: Forties strength pulled Afromaxes out of the Atlantic, and TC14 charterers stepped in to set a near-term bottom.

(26:36) Gasoline, Singapore 92 and NAFTA: Gasoline stays soft, but naphtha stays firm as TC5 keeps rallying and LR1 tonnage stays tight.

(36:03) LPG: US stocks and the butane premium: US propane stocks sit near record highs, but butane is tightening as blenders keep barrels inland.

Felipe Elink-Schuurman, Michael Ryan, Aaron Kildow and Nikolas Plonski unpack Hormuz exports rebounding near pre-war levels despite daily tanker attacks, VLCC rates near $1.2 million a day, Trump's shelved diesel export ban, EU and US SPR releases, and why gas oil cracks still look bullish into Q1 2027.

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(00:00:20) Hormuz Holds, Barely: Crude exports near pre-war levels even as tanker attacks continue daily and Iran talks go nowhere.

(00:02:50) VLCC Rates Go Vertical: Freight fixtures surge out of the Gulf as VLCC rates jump from $80k to $1.2 million a day.

(00:12:54) Ukraine Hits Russian Refining: Lukoil's Volgograd refinery and a Transneft hub get struck, cutting roughly 5% of Russian capacity.

(00:15:06) Distillates and the SPR Release: EU and G7 SPR releases crush gas oil spreads, but Nikolas still likes Q1 2027 cracks.

(00:25:18) Freight and Crude Trade Calls: Michael turns bearish TC2 spreads, Aaron flags a $25 a barrel freight bill eating North Sea margins.

(00:31:03) Gasoline Holds the Line: RBOB stays firm on hurricane risk and tight US octane, with ARA still the Atlantic's key supplier.