The One Cell That Decides Your Deal
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The One Cell That Decides Your Deal
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Most of a real estate model is honest work: real rents, real comps, real bills.
Then you reach one cell near the bottom, the price you'll sell for years from now, and you fill it with a number you can't possibly know. This episode is about that number, the exit assumption, and how the quietest guess in the model often carries most of the return.
Why a precise figure fools us into false confidence, why the deals that lean hardest on the exit are the ones most likely to break, and why the best deals don't need the future to cooperate, they just need it not to fall apart.
The deal is won or lost in the structure and the downside, not the headline return.
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