Russia's battlefield setbacks could lead to a longer and more disruptive war in Ukraine. Head of Intelligence Mark Overington examines Moscow's military challenges and the prospect of further mobilisation, while Senior Intelligence Analyst Julian Kett explores the changing threat from long-range strikes and the implications for organisations operating in Ukraine.

This week, we assess growing indications of renewed US military action against Iran, Russia's cluster munition strikes in central Kyiv, and escalating Houthi attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure.

We also cover the US midterms, Brazil's presidential election aftermath, protests in France and Tunisia, a deadly train collision in Spain, Serbia's election result, political uncertainty in Israel, a church attack in Jordan, Algeria's deployment to Niger and rising tensions in Ethiopia.

In Asia-Pacific, we examine the aftermath of Cyclone Arnab, flooding in Thailand and continued wildfires and protests in Indonesia.

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Could tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea lead to a wider conflict in the Horn of Africa? Intelligence Analyst Joshua George examines the role of Tigray, Ethiopia's ambitions for Red Sea access and how regional alliances and existing conflicts could shape the risk of escalation.