Surfside Passes Cutwater as RTDs Jump 23 Percent
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- **Spirits near a floor:** Pernod Ricard Q1 FY27 sales were ?2.234B, with US down 10% on destocking. Jameson, Kahlúa, Skrewball and Malibu were bright spots. India grew 19% on pipeline fill ahead of a possible IPO.
- **Brown-Forman:** US is about 42% of sales. Gross margin of 60.2% is likely the year's peak, with pressure through FY27 and a roughly two-year whiskey inventory clearance. No new restructuring planned.
- **Spirit tracker data:** Jefferies shows value at -1.7% (+3.0% with RTDs). RTDs grew 23.3%, and Surfside passed Cutwater as top contributor. Citi shows prepared cocktails +23.4% against core spirits -1.2% in sales.
- **Category movers:** Tequila grew on lower prices (Lunazul +39.7%, Lalo +75.9%, Espolon +14.1%). Scotch, Irish and American whiskey improved. Canadian whisky and Crown Royal stayed weak.
- **Diageo and peers:** Diageo's $1B restructuring and Cameronbridge strikes, with Q1 FY27 trading Nov 5. LVMH's Moët Hennessy beat on a Hennessy RTS and Chandon. Rémy reports Oct 28. Proximo closed Great Jones in Manhattan.
- **Beer:** Total US beer volume ran about -3.9%. ABI's Michelob grew while Bud Light fell 11.3%. Heineken USA was the laggard. Constellation, Molson Coors, Boston Beer and Brown-Forman improved on a four-week basis.
- **Colorado franchise fight:** Coors Distributing is seeking an injunction against Constellation/Crown Imports. Mark Anthony and Sierra Nevada are also leaving CDC for Reyes' RBG. Judge Espinosa's order is due Oct 29.
- **RNDC breakup:** Great Lakes took Michigan, Martignetti took 17 control-state brokerages and Girardi, Keg 1 River City took Kentucky, and Reyes took Western Maryland Distributing. NBWA's convention put the "whole deck" message on stage.
- **Courts and enforcement:** SCOTUS denied cert on Ohio retail wine shipping, leaving a circuit split. Home distilling decision expected Oct 19. FTC proposed a Southern Glazer's Robinson-Patman settlement. Arkansas Supreme Court ruled on wholesaler appointments, including Kirkland Signature.
- **Wine:** Treasury is cutting from roughly 75 brands to 30 to 35, with a US strategic review. Gundlach Bundschu filed Chapter 11, and Adelaida and 86 Napa licenses are in distress. NIQ shows wine -2.1% in dollars, with NA wine +19.1% and sparkling +3.3%.
- **Distressed assets:** Uncle Nearest is nearing a Chapter 11 sale. Passaggio is closing its tasting room. Pacific Rim, SIMI and Iris are under WarRoom Cellars.
- **Hemp:** Federal ban after Dec 11. Minnesota liquor stores are cutting orders, and Total Wine is leaving shelf space blank.
- **Retail and consumer:** KFC switching to Coca-Cola in January. Kroger cutting 3,000 corporate jobs. Albertsons pulled guidance, with the Kroger trial Oct 19. Costco comps strong. No/low is additive, and GLP-1 effects were flagged.
- **Other:** MGP becomes Sempreon (ticker CASK) on Nov 2. 71% of bourbon exports ship in bulk. Hormuz freight costs are up. Ontario's LCBO is sitting on $79.1M of unsold US alcohol. Campari chairman faces a ?1.29B tax case.