Cover of David & Christina: How to Project Your Real Estate Business a Full Year Out

David & Christina: How to Project Your Real Estate Business a Full Year Out

David & Christina: How to Project Your Real Estate Business a Full Year Out

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In this Simple CFO Case Files episode, David Richter and Christina Gutierrez continue their dashboard series with the projections and cashflow tab, the one David says he uses with Christina in their own finance meetings every week. This is a screen-share episode, so it’s worth catching on YouTube to see the sheet in action.Christina walks through building a year-long projection from the top down: forecasting revenue by exit strategy, layering in cost of goods and commissions, and landing on gross profit, which Profit First calls your real revenue. She and David cover why forecasted numbers sit right above the actuals pulled live from QuickBooks, how to catch the one-off expenses that quietly drain cash, and why the balance sheet (owner distributions, loan principal, big annual bills) matters as much as the income statement. If projecting your year feels overwhelming, this one makes it concrete.Timeline Summary[0:30] – Why the projections tab is David’s favorite and something he uses weekly with Christina[1:57] – Starting a year plan with goals, where you’ve been, and what you can realistically do[2:58] – Why every blue cell is a manual input and everything else pulls from QuickBooks[3:24] – Forecasting revenue by looking back before looking forward[4:08] – Sending leads you can’t use to an agent for a referral fee on little extra work[4:53] – Backing into a revenue number: ten assignments at $20K equals $200K a month[5:45] – Why forecasted income and actual income sit side by side and rarely match[6:42] – Why projecting well is a core CEO skill you can build over six months[8:04] – The cash balance at the top and why cash differs from net profit[9:22] – Adding a new exit strategy, like a flip every 90 days, to see its revenue impact[10:24] – Cost of goods for wholesale: mostly commission, plus quarterly bonuses[11:40] – Why one-off and quarterly costs hit hard if you don’t plan for them[12:26] – Writing notes right in the blue cells so you remember why you projected a number[13:38] – Nerding out on how close the forecast landed versus the actuals[16:11] – The accounting lesson: revenue minus cost of goods equals gross profit, your real revenue[16:58] – Why you build your business around gross profit, not the vanity revenue number[18:01] – Why gross profit margin should hold steady and signals flipping efficiency[19:18] – Why a thin gross profit margin means an inefficient flipping business[21:32] – Forecasting overhead: the expenses you pay whether or not you make a sale[23:02] – Planning one-off costs like a $15K annual phone system or a March trip[27:04] – Why so many investors fail at cash management, not at the business itself[28:13] – Why a red negative net income number jumps out and triggers action[29:32] – The client pushed from $700K to $1.3M in a month through a real plan[31:35] – Why the opening cash balance and a cushion matter most[32:13] – The balance sheet lesson: owner distributions, loan principal, and receivables hit cash[33:13] – Why owners underestimate how much they pull out of the business5 Key TakeawaysProjecting Is A CEO Skill — Forecasting your year isn’t just a finance exercise, it’s a muscle. Seeing your forecast against the actuals each month trains you to predict your business better over time.Forecast Sits Above Actuals — Every blue cell is your projection; the bold number below it pulls live from QuickBooks. That side-by-side is the whole test: how good were you at predicting what really happened?Gross Profit Is Your Real Revenue — Revenue is vanity. The $200K top line isn’t yours to run the business on once commissions and costs come out. Build around gross profit, which Profit First calls real revenue.Plan The One-Off Expenses — A $15K annual phone system or a once-a-year trip won’t show up monthly but will drain your cash. Forecast them in the month they hit so a big deal plus a big bill doesn’t catch you short.Watch The Balance Sheet, Not Just The P&L — Owner distributions, loan principal payments, and unpaid receivables hit your cash without ever showing on the income statement. Owners routinely underestimate what they pull out, and that’s a top reason businesses run out of cash.Links & ResourcesSimple CFO — https://simplecfo.comProfit First for Real Estate Investing Free Workbooks — https://pfreiworkbook.comProfit First for Real Estate Investing by David Richter — https://profitfirstrei.comEnjoyed This Episode?If watching David and Christina build a projection made you realize you’ve never actually planned your year on paper, that’s the move worth making before your next deal. Share this episode with an investor who manages their business from their bank balance, and follow the show and leave a rating and review so more investors can find these Case Files.
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