Bank of America's Latest Warning
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Bank of America's Latest Warning
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Emerging markets sit in limbo. The trade has become crowded, but the technical structure remains intact. Recent price action broke above multi-year resistance and now tests it as support. If that support holds, machines will likely rotate back in. Momentum is stretched, but not exhausted. The challenge is that EM trades are heavily sensitive to the U.S. dollar. And the dollar itself is showing signs of exhaustion. Dollar strength has cooled. Momentum is negative. No major buy signals. Machines remain flat. If dollar weakness returns, EM risk assets will benefit disproportionately. But correlation risk is high. A surprise dollar rally, driven by geopolitical stress or a hawkish Federal Reserve shift, would hammer emerging markets — not just on a performance basis, but structurally through capital flight.
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