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Somewhere outside Paris, a guy is standing by a chain-link fence pointing a hairdryer at a government thermometer.

Why?

Because he bet on record-breaking heat — and apparently decided predicting the future was less profitable than helping it along.

Welcome to prediction markets: places where people can put money on elections, wars, the weather, what a president will say on television, who wins Survivor… basically anything with an outcome.

But what happens when there's enough money riding on an event that people stop predicting reality and start trying to change it?

In this episode, MAD co-host Sean Guillory jumps into the guest chair alongside his Betting Intelligence co-founders Dan Zimmerman and Gary Morland to explain how prediction markets work, why they've exploded, and the strange new security problems that emerge when information itself has a price tag.

We get into insider information, market manipulation, journalists being threatened, fake signals, AI-generated disinformation, geopolitical bets, regulatory loopholes — and why the person who knows what's going to happen may also have a financial incentive to make sure it does.

Check out Betint: https://www.betint.net/

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MAD Warfare™ is hosted by narrative strategist Jocelyn Brady and cognitive neuroscientist Sean Anthony Guillory.
Edited and produced by Amine el Filali.

Visit madwarfare.com for extra giggles.
Send dream guests, weird ideas, wishes, and sponsorship inquiries (yes, again) to madwarfarepodcast@gmail.com.

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