The Calm Before the Storm
Why Volatility Signals Stability and Vice Versa
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The Calm Before the Storm
Narrated by:
Kevin Stillwell
Buy Now for €1.75
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Narrated by:
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Kevin Stillwell
Instead of trying to predict "Black Swan" events such as coups or crises, forecasters should look at how political systems handle disorder. The best indicator of a country's future trajectory is not a lengthy past stability, but recent moderate volatility.
©2015 Foreign Affairs (P)2015 Audible, Inc.
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But he took the example of Lebanon.
Lebanon's situation in 2021 is, because of a lot of factors, not good at all, in spite of Taleb's prediction (capacity to deal with disorder makes one more robust)
In Antifragile he wrote KSA is fragile and will thus collapse.
Time has for the moment shown that KSA is more stable than Lebanon.
Better not make predictions.
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