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The Calm Before the Storm

Why Volatility Signals Stability and Vice Versa

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The Calm Before the Storm

De : Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Gregory F. Treverton
Lu par : Kevin Stillwell
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Instead of trying to predict "Black Swan" events such as coups or crises, forecasters should look at how political systems handle disorder. The best indicator of a country's future trajectory is not a lengthy past stability, but recent moderate volatility.

©2015 Foreign Affairs (P)2015 Audible, Inc. Politique et gouvernement Sciences politiques Sciences sociales
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I enjoyed this when I listened to it but time has shown that his argument is wrong.
But he took the example of Lebanon.
Lebanon's situation in 2021 is, because of a lot of factors, not good at all, in spite of Taleb's prediction (capacity to deal with disorder makes one more robust)
In Antifragile he wrote KSA is fragile and will thus collapse.
Time has for the moment shown that KSA is more stable than Lebanon.
Better not make predictions.

This didn't age well

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