Cover of Michigan SHOCKER: Haley Stevens Endorses Mike Rogers

Michigan SHOCKER: Haley Stevens Endorses Mike Rogers

Michigan SHOCKER: Haley Stevens Endorses Mike Rogers

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I defy anybody to feel like they have an accurate read on the vibes going into these midterms.The polls look electric for Democrats, even if there’s a general belief that they’re overrepresenting Democratic support. Republicans seem depressed as they realize that Trump beat the party into submission, and that the coalition that won in 2024 could only be unlocked by tying themselves completely to him. MAGA Inc. has spent money and Trump has been on the road, but the war in Iran is unpopular, inflation remains a problem and the economy hasn’t been solved. Then, with Democrats gassed up to the nines, Michigan broke completely loose: Haley Stevens endorsed Republican Mike Rogers over Abdul El-Sayed.El-Sayed beat Stevens in a primary that ended much closer than many people expected, and Stevens initially played the good soldier. But El-Sayed has run a campaign committed to his own point of view, even when reaching out could help him with voters who might have to hold their noses to support him. This is a common trait among the first candidates to break through from an electrified ideological movement. They’ve spent years believing the establishment strangled their momentum, so once they reach the big stage, they have a hard time shaking a hand. It’s something Trump is actually good at: he’ll scream a million nasty things while trying to win, but if the deal is the deal, he’ll shake hands afterward. El-Sayed hasn’t done that, and he’s struggled to make inroads with the Black community in Detroit and the Jewish community in the suburbs — precisely the voters for whom Stevens should’ve been a useful surrogate.Politics Politics Politics is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.The situation boiled over after El-Sayed was asked during a debate whether Israel or Iran posed the greater danger to the United States. He called it a ridiculous hypothetical. Then Rebellion PAC aired an ad suggesting Americans couldn’t afford groceries because their money was going toward killing Palestinians, before ending with a play on Trump’s “they/them” ad. The “they” and “them” in this version weren’t pronouns — they were Israelis, Jews or Zionists, depending on how you interpreted it. Stevens saw the ad as rank antisemitism and demanded that El-Sayed denounce it. His answer was that he had nothing to do with the ad. That wasn’t good enough for her.In another era, somebody with institutional power inside the Democratic Party would’ve removed Stevens from the situation before it reached this point. Eleanor Roosevelt would’ve put her on a one-way trip to Hawaii with a belly full of lithium and told her she could come back when permitted. It wouldn’t matter whether Stevens was right or wrong — she simply couldn’t be allowed near the race. But nobody has that power now. Stevens’ fiancé announced that he was voting for Rogers. Stevens went on CNN and said theirs was a split household but that she was still voting for El-Sayed. El-Sayed responded that she was insisting on relitigating a long-decided primary. Party elders tried to arrange a unity event, nobody could get the camps to shut up, and Stevens ultimately went to a church with Rogers instead.The professional Democratic class is aghast because politics is a team sport. If Stevens put herself ahead of the team, then she betrayed everybody. But I’ve also heard from Never Trumpers who see her decision as proof that politics isn’t all sociopathic laundry — that people don’t have to walk blindly toward whichever candidate has the correct letter beside their name. If Stevens genuinely believes there’s an antisemitism problem inside the Democratic Party, then she shouldn’t have to stand beside El-Sayed when he won’t make even a minimal peace with her or the voters who supported her. That primary was close, and El-Sayed still needs some of those people.I’m leaning toward this not mattering in Michigan. I still suspect El-Sayed will win, even if it’s close, and he’ll take that as a mandate to purge the Haley Stevens wing of the party. But if he loses, the stories coming out of that campaign will be like somebody turning off the containment vault in Ghostbusters — ghouls flying everywhere. This is a loser-leaves-town match now: either Stevens is finished in Democratic politics, or El-Sayed gets fired into the sun. The larger question is about coalitions. We’re in a warlord era with very little allegiance to the greater party, and “me over we” can look either righteous or cowardly depending on where you stand. If Democrats begin chasing away high-propensity Jewish voters, it may not decide this election, but over time it could put states in play that wouldn’t normally be there.Chapters00:00 - Intro05:10 - Haley Stevens30:54 - Wrap-up This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access ...
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