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Jiang Xueqin, known online as Professor Jiang, is an educator and the creator of the YouTube channel Predictive History. In this episode, Jiang and Robinson discuss the war in Iran, the limits of American power, and the economic and political pressures facing China. More particularly, they talk about Trump’s strategy in the Middle East, Israel, the Strait of Hormuz, the Houthis, Saudi Arabia, and Jiang’s predictions about the war’s consequences for the global economy. They also discuss Xi Jinping, Chinese corruption and debt, Richard Wolff and Michael Hudson’s views on China, and how to test Jiang’s approach to history and geopolitical forecasting.

Jiang’s YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@PredictiveHistory

Jiang’s Substack: https://predictivehistory.substack.com/

OUTLINE
00:00 Introduction
05:53 Can the Iran War End America's Empire?
09:20 How America Lost Its Global Appeal
18:55 America's Three Pillars of Soft Power
29:54 Why Jiang Calls China Neoliberal
34:08 From Rural China to Yale and Back
41:05 Jiang's Critique of Wolff on China
51:28 China's Property Bubble and Debt Crisis
58:44 What Unites Trump, Xi, and Putin?
1:08:49 From Mao to Xi: China's Power Struggle
1:17:01 Zero-COVID and China's Economic Crisis
1:24:14 Taiwan, Uyghurs, and Chinese Rule
1:27:53 Criticizing China While Living There
1:32:57 Arendt, Kafka, and Authoritarianism
1:37:12 Why Jiang Calls Canada Authoritarian
1:43:06 How Jiang Predicted the Iran War
1:51:01 Israel and the Clean Break Memo
1:54:44 Trump's Coalition and the Iran War
1:57:18 Jiang's Original Iran War Forecast
2:02:01 Why Regime Change in Iran Is So Hard
2:07:41 Can Drones and Insurgents Beat Empires?
2:12:02 Iran and the Strait of Hormuz
2:14:45 How the Houthis Disrupt Global Trade
2:18:59 Why Saudi Arabia Struggles in Yemen
2:25:36 Could the Iran War Trigger Collapse?
2:31:02 Would Elites Let the System Collapse?
2:36:55 Rat Utopia and Social Collapse
2:41:01 Canada: Breakup or US Annexation?
2:44:52 Could the Iran War Become a World War?
2:49:30 Jiang on Wolff, Hudson, and Collapse
2:53:27 Conspiracies and Testing Jiang's Ideas
3:02:49 The Iran War: What Can't Be Predicted?
3:07:49 What Would Prove Jiang Wrong?

Robinson’s Website: https://robinsonerhardt.com/

Robinson Erhardt researches symbolic logic and the foundations of mathematics at Stanford University, where he is also a JD candidate in the Law School.

Disclaimer: Robinson’s Podcast is a forum for open discussion. Guests’ views are their own and do not necessarily reflect Robinson's. Hosting a guest does not imply that he endorses the views or opinions they express.